I. Overview
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Guiding questions
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Model description
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I.i Purpose
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I.i.a What is the
purpose of the study?
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Creation of
synthetic population of Celtic society living at oppidum Staré Hradisko from 150
– 30 BC.
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I.ii.b For whom is
the model designed?
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The model is
designed for scientists, particularly those interested in archaeology and
demography.
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I.ii Entities, state
variables and scales
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I.ii.a What kind of
entities are in the model?
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Agents: individual
inhabitants
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I.ii.b By what
attributes (i.e. state variables and parameters) are these entities
characterized?
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Inhabitants are
characterized by:
Age (years)
Age category (suckling 0-1, toddler 2-3, child 4-9, older-child
10-14, young-adult 15-19, adult 20-49, elder over 49 years)
Gender (male, female)
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I.ii.c What are the
exogenous factors/drivers of the models?
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Exogenous factor: immigration
(constant number of inhabitants per year)
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I.ii.d If
applicable, how is space included in the model?
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Space is not
included
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I.ii.e What are the
temporal and spatial resolutions and extents of the model?
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1 time step = 1 year.
The simulation runs
for 120 years.
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I.iii
Process overview and scheduling
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I.iii.a What entity
does what, and in what order?
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1. Every step (year) each inhabitant
gets older (or dies).
2. Female between 15 and 50 can give
birth.
3. If immigration <> 0, appropriate
number of new inhabitants is added.
4. If population decline is requested,
appropriate number of inhabitants is removed.
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II. Design Concepts
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II.i
Theoretical and Empirical Background
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II.i.a Which general
concepts, theories or hypotheses are underlying the model’s design at the
system level or at the level(s) of the submodels (apart from the decision
model)? What is the link to complexity and the purpose of the model?
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Underlying concepts
and theories:
Archeological
evidence for Staré Hradisko and other oppida [RESOURCE]
Malthus’ theory of population
growth
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II.i.b On what
assumptions is/are the agents’descision model(s) based?
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Ad-hoc rule: two birth-rate-functions
using random numbers were defined experimentally; avg. number of newborns per
female =
Real-world
observations: life tables applied in get-older procedure
Rule of thumb: the same
age structure at time 0 and 120 is checked.
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II.i.c Why is a/are
certain decision model(s) chosen?
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General theoretical
considerations about fertility of a woman between 15-50 were applied in the
birth-rate-functions, because there are no exact data about Celtic population.
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II.i.d If the model
/ a submodel (e.g. the decision model) is based on empirical data, where does
the data come from?
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Archeological
evidence for Staré Hradisko and other oppida – theoretical assumption about
the initial population: 600-800 inhabitants
Approximated Life
tables [Saller]
Food calorie table
is used for computation of total consumption of the population (Appendix 1)
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II.i.e At which
level of aggregation were the data available?
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Life tables for
5-years intervals were approximated.
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II.ii
Individual Decision Making
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Individual decision
making is not included.
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II.iii
Learning
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Learning in not
included.
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II.iv
Individual Sensing
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Individual sensing
is not included.
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II.v
Individual Prediction
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Individual
prediction is not included.
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II.vi
Interaction
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No interactions
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II.vii
Collectives
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No collectives.
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II.viii
Heterogeneity
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II.viii.a Are the
agents heterogeneous? If yes, which state variables and/or processes differ
between the agents?
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Birth-rate function
is used only for female inhabitants between 15-50.
Consumption differs
for different age groups (Appendix 1)
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II.viii.b Are the
agents heterogeneous in their decision-making? If yes, which decision models
or decision objects differ between the agents?
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-
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II.ix
Stochasticity
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II.ix.a What process
(including initialization) are modeled by assuming they are random or partly
random?
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Initial age
structure of the population
Birth-rate function
Get-older function
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II.x
Observation
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II.x.a What data are
collected from the ABM for testing, understanding, and analyzing it, and how
and when are they collected?
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At the end of every
time step (year), the age structure of the population and the consumption of
the population are stored in data files.
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II.x.b What key
results, outputs or characteristics of the model are emerging from the
individuals? (Emergence)
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Population growth or
decline emerges depending on birth-rate-function (linear or normal), approximated
life tables (3 or 5) and decline scenario.
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III. Details
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III.i
Implementation Details
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III.i.a How has the
model been implemented?
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NetLogo
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III.i.b Is the
models accessible and if so where?
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Can be made
available upon request
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III.ii
Initialization
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III.ii.a What is the
initial state of the model world, i.e. at time t=0 of a simulation run?
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Values from interface
sliders for:
Initial number of
inhabitants
Birth probability
parameter
Number of immigrants
per year
Choices of interface
choosers:
Type of birth-rate
function
Type of life tables
Type of initial age
structure of population
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III.ii.b Is the
initialization always the same, or is it allowed to vary among simulations?
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Initial values are
varied
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III.ii.c Are the
initial values chosen arbitrarily or based on data?
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Initial number of
inhabitants should be between 600-800 (theoretical assumption about the
population in the settlement Staré Hradisko)
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III.iii.
Input Data
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III.iii.a Does the model
use input from external sources such as data files or other models to
represent processes that change over time?
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Life tables from a
data file
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III.iv.
Submodels
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III.iv.a What, in
detail, are the submodels that represent the process listed in “Process
overview and scheduling”?
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Population scenarios:
1. Normal growth (baseline)
2. Sudden decline caused by emigration
3. Slow continuous decline caused by emigration
4.
Sudden decline caused by epidemy
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III.iv.b What are
the model parameters, their dimension and reference values?
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Initial population
400-1200, increment 50 (recommended value 600-800)
Life table: 3,5, interpolated
3, interpolated 5
Birth probability
0-100
Immigrants per year
0-10
Decline year 1-120 (recommended
value 70-80)
Decline 0-1,
increment 0.005
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III.iv.c How were
submodels designed or chosen, and how were they parameterized and then
tested?
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[REFERENCES]
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Appendix 1
Age category
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Calories
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Suckling
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0
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Toddler
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1360
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Child
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2000
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Older child – female
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2300
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Older child – man
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2500
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Young adult – female
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2500
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Young adult – man
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3000
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Adult – female
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2600
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Adult – man
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3000
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Elder
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2000
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